The model of development of humanity predicts that external factors - environment and presence of resources do not influence on the limit of increase of population. It is determined only by internal factors that are unchangeable during million years. Really, humanity on the whole always disposed sufficient resources that a man mastered by land and increased efficiency of production. When contacts ceased, resources and free space are not remained, local development closed, but a general height was steady. Today in the developed countries 3-4 percent of population can feed the entire country. According to the statement of experts of International organization food is enough for 20-25 milliards of persons in the visible future. It will allow to humanity calmly to pass a demographic transition when the population will be 2, 5 times increased. Thus, the limit of height of quantity it is necessary to search not in the global lack of resources and in conformities to law of development of humanity. This conclusion requires a deep comprehensive discussion very substantially. Resources, however, are up-diffused on a planet extremely unevenly. In cities and countries they are already outspent or near to the process of exhausting. Argentina, for example, an area only 30 percent less than India is a country of the most ancient civilization has the population that 30 times more and it has very poor life. But Argentina modern development began 200 years back, and, as experts assert, could feed the whole world. In the visible future after a demographic transition a question will get up about the criteria of development of humanity. If in the past basis was a quantitative height, then after stabilizing of quantity quality of population will have to become by it. The change of the age-related structure will result in deep alteration of hierarchy of values, greater loading on health protection, on the systems of social defense and education. These fundamental changes of the values of a society, undoubtedly, will make up a basic problem in the nearest future on the new stage of evolution of humanity.
|